世界銀行－RussianEconomicReport-Oct（英文版）.pdf20

Introduction
On an aggregate level, Russia’s economy continues to perform well, and has been growing
steadily in an international environment where growth threatens to become the exception. Oil
prices are up. Business and consumer confidence levels are at post-crisis record highs. True
“islands of competence” have emerged, in particular in the corporate sector (in the main in the
service and consumption goods industries), where new and improved ways of doing business
have created demonstration effects, spreading good practices across industries and improving
demand for domestically produced intermediary goods. Optimists argue that the networks
established between these “islands” are becoming strong enough to lift the entire economy onto
a sustainable growth path, by generating a diversified industrial base which serves strong
domestic markets.
On the other hand, there is a familiar litany of structural imbalances. The public sector remains
inefficient, public resource management inadequate and public service provision often dismal.
And the economy remains highly concentrated in at least three dimensions. Ownership in the
private sector is concentrated in a few conglomerates. New firms and start-ups, the drivers of
growth in other transition economies, have been slow to develop, with the enterprise structure
inherited from the socialist period still dominating much of the economy. Above all, Russia’s
economic performance remains crucially dependent on natural resource exports, and in
particular on oil.
This period may well turn out to be decisive in determining the path of economic development
in Russia. In a period of high oil prices and political stability, reforms have been carried out at
unprecedented depth and
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