德意誌銀行的中國保險行業分析-04年10月份(pdf 28)

Table of Contents
Sector overview. 3
Outlook 3
Valuation ...3
Risks ....3
Impact of new business on stock valuations .... 4
Sensitivity of our price target to new business profit growth..4
Conclusion – risks to new business profit growth assumptions...5
New business trends... 7
Who’s winning and who’s losing 7
Product trends – shift back towards regular premium products...8
Profit margin impact 9
Gross premium expectations .. 11
2H04F and full-year premium income predictions ..11
New business: 2004 outlook.... 14
How do industry gross written premiums translate into new business sales? ...14
The importance of new business ...18
Global insurance valuations .... 20
Global insurance price performance. 22
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