高華證券-機械資本品中國智能製造相對機器人更看好(PDF 56頁)

主要內容
Our thesis in six charts 3
Overview: China’s pressing need to upgrade and modernize its manufacturing industry 4
Valuation methodology: Using EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC framework 7
Intelligent manufacturing: A top priority for China’s “Manufacturing 2025” plan 9
1. How fast will industrial robots, CNC and fiber lasers grow over the next 10 years? 14
2. We expect share gains by local champions driven by R&D, market access and services 21
3. 2016-17E downstream capex not broadly encouraging, we favor smartphone & EV 27
Han’s: A proven laser leader to ride on China’s industrial upgrade; initiate at CL-Buy 42
Inovance: Increase TP/EPS, EV & FA as twin engines; off CL on less upside; reiterate Buy 44
Estun: Possible niche market winner but needs time; valuation stretched; initiate at Sell 46
Huagong Tech: Strong R&D background; diversified laser segments; fairly valued; Neutral 48
Siasun: Integration focused strategy helps to expand scale but limits cash return; Neutral 50
STEP: Upgrade to Neutral on less downside following underperformance 52
Appendix: Glossary 54
Disclosure Appendix 55
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