每日AP的金融服務(英文版)(pdf 64頁)

We believe the outlook for Asian banks’ earnings in 2006 is sluggish at best (we estimate 9% for the region and 6% ex- Korea/Australia), while banks stocks have remained resilient (underperforming the broad market though) rising 10% YTD and more than a 1/3rd since lows in mid-2004. Absolute upside opportunities therefore appear limited; we estimate 5% upside potential. Our model portfolio however still trades 12% below fair value. We recommend a continued focus on bottom-up stock
valuations. On this basis, we see further upside potential (arguably more limited now) in Korean banks (Kookmin/SFG) and Taiwanese banks (China Trust/ Cathay). Selective opportunities also remain in SBI and Standard Chartered.
In Thailand, we interpret the onset of the interest rate up-cycle as a net negative for the sector even if timing/re-pricing effects might provide a transient near-term uplift to margins. Our top picks are KBANK and SCB whose margins are substantially less sensitive than BBL’s to a parallel increase in rates over a 12-month period.
Model Portfolio Review – up 0.7% last week (JPMorgan Banks Index +0.1% and MSCI Asia +0.6%) with performance led by Korean and Indian banks. Taiwanese banks remain the thorn in this portfolio’s side as also the weakness in Tisco.
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