房價與地價因果關係--模型和中國1998-2005的事實(PDF 12)

房價與地價因果關係：模型和中國1998-2005的事實
中國社會科學院財貿所 張清勇
摘要：本文應用城市經濟學的基本模型，在嚴格假設下推導得出了住房價格與地價因果關係的模型，發現房價是地價的成因，地價由房價決定。繼而應用中國1998年第一季度至2005年第二季度的住宅價格指數進行經驗研究。分析結果顯示，商品住宅銷售價格（RHP）和居民住宅用地交易價格（RLP）、普通住宅銷售價格（SRHP）和居民普通住宅用地交易價格（SRLP）分別存在協整關係，即長期的均衡關係；RHP是RLP的短期和長期Granger因，RLP不構成RHP的短期和長期Granger因；SRHP是SRLP的短期和長期Granger因，SRLP不構成SRHP的短期和長期Granger因；豪華住宅銷售價格（HRHP）和居民豪華住宅用地交易價格（HRLP）之間不存在協整關係或者說長期的均衡關係。
關鍵詞：房價 地價 因果關係
On the Causal Relationship between Housing and Land Prices: A Model and Evidence from China, 1998-2005
Zhang Qingyong
Abstract: Based on basic models of urban economics, the paper models causal relationship between housing and land prices, indicating that price of land is the result--not the cause--of housing prices. In addition, using quarterly data from Chinese housing market, empirical results show that RHP with RLP, and SRHP with SRLP are respectively cointegrated, denoting long term equilibrium between them; RHP is the short and long term Granger cause of RLP, while not vice versa; SRHP Granger causes SRLP both in the short and long run, but not vice versa; however, there is no cointegration between HRHP and HRLP, meaning no long term
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