中國房地產之迷思(pdf 8頁)

Once more into the fray
One year ago this month we published two short pieces on the Chinese property market (China’s Property Myths, 17 February 2005, and Property Myths II: The Shanghai Story, 28 February 2005). At the time, investor concerns about the property sector were at an all-time high; developer and mortgage lending had been running at a frenetic pace, the government was busy issuing new policies to dampen speculation, and the press was full of stories about a big Chinese “bubble”. Many observers thought the housing and commercial markets were on the verge of collapse – and that the rest of the economy could
shortly follow.
Our conclusions last year were that, looking at the country as a whole, the property market didn’t even look overheated, much less a bubble, and we had no concerns about macroeconomic stability (we were somewhat more concerned about the Shanghai market, but this was one of the only exceptions among major cities and regions).
12 months down the road, these conclusions haven’t changed. Price growth has slowed a bit, but based on the available data we still see no reason to worry about the health of the overall market. This report provides an updated look at the nationwide indicators, and a subsequent follow-up will focus on recent developments in Shanghai.
A few basics
As before, we begin with a short note on the definition of the word “bubble”. The essence of a bubble is unsustainability, and the classic case is very simple: prices skyrocket to unreasonable levels, and then come crashing down. Some economists also use the phrase when describing growth rates, i.e., even if prices don’t actually fall, they could still be rising too fast and be forced into a period of relative stagnation as a result.
..............................