2003高盛中國汽車市場分析報告(pdf 48)

Too many bulls in a China shop? Automakers are rushing
to expand capacity, lured by bold growth projections. But we fear
the market could prove volatile, pricing could fall faster than costs,
and cash flows from JVs could disappoint. The high returns
currently enjoyed in China, particularly by VW, seem unlikely to last.
Keith Hayes
keith.hayes@gs.com
London: 44-20-7774-1142
Max Warburton
max.warburton@gs.com
London: 44-20-7774-5905
Gary Lapidus
gary.lapidus@gs.com
New York: 1-212-902-2359
Kunihiko Shiohara
kunihiko.shiohara@gs.com
Tokyo: 81-3-3589-8869
Young Chang
young.chang@gs.com
Seoul: 82-2-3788-1175
Shane McKenna
shane.mckenna@gs.com
London: 44-20-7552-2919
Goldman Sachs
Global Equity Research

Chinese auto sales growing rapidly; unit profitability high
China is the world’s fastest growing auto market, with car sales up 62% in 2002. The 1.2 mn
units sold in ’02 compare to 0.5 mn in 1996. Unusually for a developing market, profitability
is high too: VW and Honda make their highest unit margins in China, but this is due to high
tariffs and protected pricing. Production costs are higher than in Japan, Europe or the US.
1.3 bn potential customers – the auto industry just can’t resist the pull
Facing stagnant demand in other markets, the auto industry can barely contain its excitement
about China. Car ownership levels are low, income levels appear to be rising and China
represents the largest potential market of all. Automakers are rushing to add new capacity.
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