百富勤中國市場策略(pdf 54)

■Earnings growth drives performance: We expect a marked divergence of
earnings growth within the China market over the next two years.
Accelerating tertiary sector development should enhance consumer and
services sector earnings, while rising costs and capacity additions waylay
commodity plays and industrials. Earnings growth tends to dictate share
performance among Hong-Kong-listed China equities and, so, we expect
the former group of stocks to outperform.
■ Upcoming consumption boom: Rising wealth levels are resulting in a
structural shift in consumer spending patterns, and the services sector is
just beginning to grow. Sustained growth in consumer spending and retail
sales, together with mild domestic inflation, is good news for consumer and
service company profits.
■ Why commodities won't perform: Risks to commodity sector performance
are on the downside as rising costs erode margins and supply gradually
catches up with demand. Clear signs of overheating in the industrial sector
have emerged, although these will take time to become malignant.
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