造紙行業年度投資策略(pdf 42頁)

內容目錄
2005 年紙漿市場供給進一步趨緊...........................................................6
木纖維消費比重增加...............................................................................6
進口依賴增強.........................................................................................7
木漿：價格將微降1.5%..........................................................................8
廢紙：需求強勁，價格將繼續上漲12% ................................................ 11
非木漿：產量與價格保持穩定...............................................................13
成本轉嫁率具有趨漲抗跌的特征............................................................14
趨勢產品總體供過於求..........................................................................15
紙品產需缺口趨於穩定..........................................................................15
紙品消費趨於高檔.................................................................................16
新聞紙：供給顯著大於需求，價格下跌5%並低位運行...........................17
銅版紙：供大於求，價格下跌2%並低位運行.........................................21
白紙板：供求基本平衡，價格上漲2% ..................................................24
國內紙業收入增長趨緩..........................................................................27
產需缺口部分由產品向原料轉移...........................................................27
行業產需缺口近年增速10%..................................................................28
行業產需缺口是紙業增長的主要拉動力.................................................29
紙業增長受製於經濟增長趨緩...............................................................29
紙業景氣略降.......................................................................................30
銷售收入增長率將大幅回落9 個百分點..................................................31
產能擴張是效益提升的核心驅動力........................................................32
行業集中提升效益.................................................................................32
行業集中度提升空間還很大...................................................................33
產能擴張是行業效益增長的核心驅動力..................................................34
國內紙業國際競爭劣勢的主因還是規模不足...........................................34
紙業投資策略.........................................................................................35
行業評級為“中性”...................................................................................35
以“產能擴張”為核心的選股標準..............................................................35
選擇投資品種..........................................................................................35
估值與評級.............................................................................................38
紙業投資的風險點...................................................................................38
人民幣升值對提升行業估值的作用在減弱...............................................39
免責條款................................................................................................40

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