BSDZ亞太中國投資策略(英文版)(pdf 104頁)內容簡介
Investment cycle and major drivers
The last trough in China’s investment cycle was in 1999, and investment growth started to accelerate from that point onwards. During the aggressive investment cycle of the past few years, property (residential, in particular) and industrial sectors were the major drivers. Within the industrial sector, basic materials (like steel, non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals) and machinery/electronics were the areas w ITh the fastest growth. A study of the finan cial statistics of China’s industrial corporations (listed and unlisted together) indicates that the pace of investment (net fixed assets in 2004 versus 1999) in the past few years seemingly had little relationship with prof ITa bility (pre-tax ROE), gearing (debt-to-asset ratio) and profit growth, but the strongest correlation w ITh revenue growth. How this investment cycle corrects will have a massive impact on the domestic economy as well as a global impact in some sectors.
Global impact
To assess the global impact of China’s capac ITy expansion on different industr IEs, there are t HRee issues that need to be considered: 1) whether this capacity could be traded internationally and hence compete with capacity in other markets, 2) whether international capacity in the industry concerned is complementary to or a substitute for Chinese capacity expansion, and 3) the pattern of capacity utilisation and the current inventory/sales pos ITions in that particular industry. After considering all these factors, we believe that the industr IEs globally that face more downside risk in terms of pri cing are apparel & textiles, furn ITure & related services, communication EQuipment, computer & electronic products, motor vehicle & parts and fabricated metals.
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The last trough in China’s investment cycle was in 1999, and investment growth started to accelerate from that point onwards. During the aggressive investment cycle of the past few years, property (residential, in particular) and industrial sectors were the major drivers. Within the industrial sector, basic materials (like steel, non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals) and machinery/electronics were the areas w ITh the fastest growth. A study of the finan cial statistics of China’s industrial corporations (listed and unlisted together) indicates that the pace of investment (net fixed assets in 2004 versus 1999) in the past few years seemingly had little relationship with prof ITa bility (pre-tax ROE), gearing (debt-to-asset ratio) and profit growth, but the strongest correlation w ITh revenue growth. How this investment cycle corrects will have a massive impact on the domestic economy as well as a global impact in some sectors.
Global impact
To assess the global impact of China’s capac ITy expansion on different industr IEs, there are t HRee issues that need to be considered: 1) whether this capacity could be traded internationally and hence compete with capacity in other markets, 2) whether international capacity in the industry concerned is complementary to or a substitute for Chinese capacity expansion, and 3) the pattern of capacity utilisation and the current inventory/sales pos ITions in that particular industry. After considering all these factors, we believe that the industr IEs globally that face more downside risk in terms of pri cing are apparel & textiles, furn ITure & related services, communication EQuipment, computer & electronic products, motor vehicle & parts and fabricated metals.
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BSDZ亞太中國投資策略(英文版)(pdf 104頁)簡介結束