全球地麵交通的投資回報分析（英文版）.pdf80

We rev IEw investment returns for global surface transport s TOCks
In this report, we compare historical and forecast return on EQu ITy and
return on invested cap ITal for the 44 largest s TOCks in our global
universe as add ITional metrics to use when valuing our s TOCks.
? Surface Transport beat its cost of cap ITal over five years, on our analysis
Overall, the industry’s 9% return on cap ITal is ahead of the current
r EQuired rate of return of 6.5%, on our estimates, due mostly to the
performance of non-asset-based compan IEs. We estimate return on
EQu ITy for surface transport s TOCks averages near 13%.
? Non-asset-based companies ach IEved the best returns
The best results are achieved by non-asset-based compan IEs (termed
“logistics” in some parts of the world), w ITh 14% ROCE and mid 20s
ROE. The asset intensive and cyclical segments – Shipping, Railways
and Trucking – reached a return on cap ITal of only 6%, on our analysis.
? Compan IEs w ITh premium returns are awarded premium multiples
There is a strong link between excess returns and ent ERPrise-value- TOCap ITal-
employed multiples, w ITh the market awarding a significant
premium to the best performing companies. Companies and industr IEs
that reverse historically low returns can be attractive investments.
? Structural changes in margins and returns can create significant value
We think FedEx is a good example of a company that has the prospect
of generating higher returns over the next cycle than the last, following
management’s efforts to make the company less cap ITal intensive.
? Cyclical recovery in returns und ERPins our pos ITive stance on container shipping
We expect a cyclical recovery in returns in container shipping driven
by volume growth and customer rate hikes. Among Asian carr IErs, our
best idea is Neptune Orient Lines. Other Overweight-rated compan IEs
are CP Ships, Wan Hai Lines and M ITsui OSK Lines.
? Industry v IEws
Detailed industry v IEws for all
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