瑞銀2006年宏觀中國未來12個月中國經濟完全指南（pdf 28）

Our complete guide to the Chinese economy for the next 12 months
GDP growth 2
Slowing headline growth – but (more important) a recovery in domestic demand
Macro policies 3
The authorities have already loosened, so look for a neutral stance next year
Investment 4
When you use the right data, investment slowed sharply in 2004 – and is now on the rise
Consumption 5
Consumers are still growing strong, with no problems ahead
Trade 6
The big story is the import recovery (and a falling trade balance)
Balance of payments 7
The days of accelerating FX reserves are over, but the PBC will still be buying
Money and credit 8
Credit growth has stabilized, and should be steady next year as well
Interest rates 9
The central bank is now committed to pushing market rates up
Exchange rate 10
Slow, gradual appreciation against the dollar is the name of the game
Inflation 11
No big inflation, no big deflation – just more of the same for now
Profits and inventories 12
2006 should be the end (not the beginning) of the profit downturn
Labor and employment 13
The end of extensive, low-wage growth is near
Commodity demand 14
A bullish year for fuels, materials and other commodities
Key sectors 15
Want to know where the action is? Watch the construction sector
Why no “hard landing”? 16
No profit collapse, no bank crisis, no social upheavals ... and plenty of policy room
Structural reforms 17
All eyes on the financial sector and capital markets next year
Medium-term outlook 18
China – another Asian tiger
Equity strategy 19
A-shares fairly valued; H-shares focus on growth
Data and tables 21
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