我國的金融風險研究(英文版)(pdf 23頁)

Summary
Short-Term Macroeconomic Outlook
– Expansionary financial environment created unsustainably fast growth
– Policy tightening has since slowed growth of credit and investment
– Soft landing in terms of GDP growth is a high probability
– Hard landing in terms of commodity prices and profitability quite likely
Prospects for Banking Reform
– Post AFC progress in bank reform
– Declining credit quality since credit growth accelerated in 2002Q4
– Bank of China and China Construction Bank recapitalizations compared
– Risks accumulating rapidly in shareholding and city banks
Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability
– Explicit government debt is modest
– Implicit government debt is much larger and growing rapidly
– Government currently pays little on most of its implicit obligations

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