世行項目評估手冊(pdf 209頁)(英文版)

Introduction 1
Organization of the Handbook ....................1
Chapter 1. An overvIEw of Economic Analysis...............3
Purpose of Economic Analysis ....................3
The Economic Setting..........3
Rationale for Public Sector Involvement......3
Other Aspects of Project Analysis ...............4
FungibilITy....4
The Questions that Economic Analysis Should Answer ......5
What is the objective of the project? 5
What will happen if the project is undertaken? What ifITis not?....5
Is the project the best alternative?....5
Are there any separable components? How good are they? ...........6
Winners and losers: Who enjoys the music? Who pays the piper?.6
What is the project’s fiscal impact? ..6
Is the project financially sustainable?6
What is the project’s environmental impact? ...........6
Techniques for assessment: Is the project worthwhile?..................7
Is this a risky project?......................7
The Process of Economic analysis ...............7
Transparency 8
Chapter 2. Rationale for Public Provision ......................9
General Considerations ......10
Market Failures..................10
Natural MonopolIEs10
ExternalITIEs ...........11
Public Goods..........12
Asymmetric Information and Incomplete Markets.13
Other Grounds for Public Intervention ......16
Poverty Reduction..16
MerITGoods...........16
Distribution of ExternalITIEs16
Summary ...................18
Chapter 3. Numeraire, Price Level, and Real vs. Nominal Prices.......20
Numeraire and Price Level .20
Real Prices vs. Nominal Prices ..................22
Constant Prices vs. Real Prices ......22
Real and Nominal Returns .............23
ProfITability of Individual Project EntITIEs..............24
Chapter 4. Consideration of Alternatives .....................25
“With” and WIThout” Comparisons............25
Private Sector Counterfactual....................27
Separable Components.......28
Chapter 5. Getting the Flow Right: Identifying Costs and BenefITs...29
Cash Flow Analysis............30
Sunk Costs ...................30
Interest Payments and Repayment of Principal..................30
Interest during Construction......................31
Physical Contingencies .......31
Transfer Payments..............31
Taxes vs User Charges ..................32
SubsidIEs ................32
Donations and Contributions in Kind.........32
The China Agricultural Support Services Project: An Example...............32
ExternalITIEs..... ..................33
Consumer Surplus..............34
Measuring Consumer Surplus ........34
Net BenefITs Profile 35
Chapter 6. Getting the Prices Right: Market Prices vs. Economic Costs................37
Valuation of Inputs and Outputs................37
Tradeable and Nontradeable Goods...........37
Valuation of Tradeable Goods...................38
Shadow Exchange Rate......41
Premium on Foreign Exchange..................41
Other Sources of Premia ....43
Valuation on Nontradeable Goods and Services ...............43
Material Inputs .......43
Land43
Wages ....................44
Conversion Factors ............45
Marginal Cost of Public Funds ..................46
Chapter 7. Valuing Environmental ExternalITIEs ........47
ExternalITIEs 47
Environmental ExternalITIEs48
Project BoundarIEs and Time Horizon.......49
Valuation of Environmental Impacts..........49
Loss in ProductivITy51
Dose-Response.......52
Measuring Intangibles....................54
Shadow Project ......55
Preventing and MITigating Environmental Impacts............56
Chapter 8. Cost Effectiveness................57
Relating Costs to BenefITs: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis...57
Cost-Effectiveness in Health..........58
Assessing UnITCosts..........60
Relating Costs to BenefITs: Weighted Cost-Effectiveness.61
Application in Education....61
Application in Health .........62
Comparing Options wITh Subjective Outcomes.................62
Some Important Caveats ....63
Chapter 9. Assessment of Education Projects .............64
CategorIEs of Project Costs64
Organizing and Presenting the Cost Data ..............65
Relating Costs to Benefits: Cost-BenefITAnalysis............66
Evaluating Investments with In-School BenefITs....66
Evaluating Investments with Out-of-School BenefITs ...................68
Incorporating the Value of ExternalITIEs................72
Annex 9A. Computing Rates of Return to Education by Level ................74
Chapter 10. Economic Evaluation of Health Projects.77
The Steps of Economic Analysis ...............78
An Immunization Example .78
Identifying and Quantifying the Effects .................79
Displacement of Existing ActivITIEs80
Is a Life Saved Today as Valuable as a Life Saved Tomorrow?....80
Effectiveness ..........81
Cost Effectiveness ..83
Weighted Cost-Effectiveness .........84
Cost-BenefITAnalysis.........88
Value of Life......................91
Annex 10A. Examples of Measures of Performance ........92
Annex 10B. Examples of Potential BenefITs from Health Projects ...........93
Chapter 11. Economic Evaluation of Transport Projects ..................94
Introduction94
Forecasting Demand ..........95
Normal, Generated, and Diverted Traffic...95
Reduction of Vehicle Operating Costs.......98
Time Savings .....................99
The Value of Working Time......................99
The Value of Non-Working Time............100
Walking and WaITing Time......................100
Freight Traffic..................100
The Value of Time over Time .................101
Default Values .................101
Accident Reduction..........102
Estimating the Incidence of Accidents .....102
Valuing Accident Reduction....................102
Producer Surplus or Net National Income ApprOAch......103
Network Effects wIThin a Mode...............105
Inter Modal Effects ..........105
Timing .....107
Environmental Impact ......108
The Highway Development Model, HDM III .................108
Gainers and Losers...........109
Fiscal Impact....................109
Chapter 12. Risk and SensitivITy Analysis .................110
SensitivITy Analysis ..........111
SwITching Values .............111
Selection of Variables and Depth of Analysis..................111
Presentation of SensitivITy Analysis .........112
Shortcomings of SensitivITy Analysis .......113
The Expected Net Present Value CrITerion .....................113
NPV vs. “Best Estimates:114
Products of Variables and Interactions among Project Components.......115
Monte Carlo Simulation and Risk Analysis .....................116
Assigning ProbabilITy Distributions of Project Components ...................116
Assigning Correlations among Project Components........118
Advantages of Estimating Expected NPV and Assessing Risk:
A Hypothetical Example .................119
Risk-NeutralITy and Government Decision Making .........123
When the NPV CrITerion is InadEQuate....124
Chapter 13. Gainer and Losers ...........127
Dan’s Clinic .....................127
Republic of MaurITius: Higher and Technical Education Project............130
Project Objective and BenefITs .....130
Project Components ....................131
Alternatives Considered...............131
Economic Analysis ......................131
Estimates of Costs133
Fiscal Impact Analysis .................137
A Public Sector or Private Sector Project?..........137
Risk Analysis........137
SustainabilITy........139
Cost Recovery......140
Estimate of BenefITs: Students’ VIEwpoint .........140
Conclusions..........142
Annex 13A. Estimation of the Shadow Exchange Rate..143
Annex 13B. Key Assumptions................146
Technical Appendix.......147
Discounting and Compounding Techniques ....................147
The Mechanics of Discounting and Compounding ..........147
Net Present Value CrITerion ....................148
Internal Rate of Return.....148
Comparison of Mutually Exclusive Alternatives..............150
The Discount Rate152
Conceptual Framework....152
Traded Goods..................156
Nontraded, but Tradeable, Goods ...........158
Nontradeable Goods ........159
The Shadow Exchange Rate....................160
Distortion-Free Case ...................160
Uniform Import Duty ..................161
Multiple Import DutIEs ................162
QuantITative Restrictions ..163
Exchange Rate Adjustment ..........165
The Opportunity Cost of CapITal .............166
The Shadow Wage Rate...171
bibliography ..................172

1. The gOAls of this Handbook are (a) to provide staff wITh analytical tools that are solidly
grounded in economic theory, yet practical and simple to use, and (b) to make the apprOAch to
the economic evaluation of projects more transparent. The Handbook offers a set of usable
tools that integrate financial, economic, and fiscal analysis and permITanalysts and decision
makers to look at a project from the perspective of various stakeholders, particularly the
implementing agency, the fisc, and society in general. Because the Handbook is intended to be
a practical guide to economic project evaluation, all of the techniques presented inIThave been
tried and applied in the fIEld.
ORGANIZATION OF THE HANDBOOK
2. The Handbook is divided into two parts: a main text and a Technical Appendix. The
main text provides a set of tools for economic and risk analysis and discusses issues that
commonly arise in the evaluation of projects in any sector. This part provides guidance on
extending the financial analysis to view the project from the point of vIEw of not only the
implementing agency, but also the fisc, the beneficiarIEs, and society. The main audIEnce of
this part is the practITioner interested in the application of the techniques of project appraisal,
but not necessarily in the theoretical undERPinnings of the apprOAch. Thus,ITpresumes that the
person undertaking the analysis has been given a set of imputed prices that reflect the costs to
society of the various inputs and outputs of the project (or “shadow” prices and conversion
factors) in addition to the prices that the project entity faces. (For the practITioner who needs
addITional background, the Technical Appendix provides the guidance necessary to estimate
social opportunITy costs or shadow prices.)

..............................