時間管理數列分析(英文版)(ppt 37頁)

時間管理數列分析內容摘要：
Benefits of time series
Monitor sales performance over time… remove variation in monthly sales caused by calendar differences and seasonality that can conceal potential problems with sales
Accurately determine the direction and rate of growth/decline in sales
Quickly identify changes in sales trends and correlate them to factors affecting sales… industry, company, competition
Improve decision making regarding sales and marketing actions
Uses of time series
Assess current sales performance and evaluate the effectiveness of sales programs
Determine underlying sales trend and project year end sales
Establish appropriate budgets for next year and estimate monthly budget spreads
Monthly variation in sales is caused by two major factors
Seasonality
Selling Days (calendar effects)
Time Series technique statistically removes the effects of these two factors
Time Series technique uses the X-11 procedure for seasonal adjustments
The X-11 procedure was developed by the U.S. Bureau of Census in the 1950’s. It was brought to A-B in the early 1960’s and has become the standard for reporting sales.

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