中國移動總體戰略(英文版)(ppt 74頁)

中國移動總體戰略內容摘要：
KEY MESSAGES
1. China’s mobile telecom service market is huge and fast growing, representing US$21 billion market size in 2001 and US$38 billion in 2005. This market is supported by the world’s largest subscriber base at 145 million, already comprising 15% of the world’s total in 2001 and growing to potentially 218 million in a low case or 300 million in a high case by 2005
2. The competitive landscape for mobile services has evolved from a single regulator and operator to today’s duopoly of China Unicom and China Mobile, both of whom are unassociated with the Ministry of Information Industries. A second breakup of China Telecom is expected to form two large telecom operators, China Telecom and China Netcom Group, who are likely to receive mobile licenses. A fifth telecom operator, China Railcom, also has the potential of receiving a third generation license and building a mobile business. For now, China Mobile dominates the market with 82% value share and 72% subscriber share and owns much of the high value user base. However churn is already high and is expected to increase with continuing pricing pressures and increased competition.
3. Wireless data services are expected to grow quickly in China to a market of potentially over US$4 billion by 2005, used by 43% of all mobile users. Interest from consumer surveys have been high and operators and other players are actively building services in the market. While early WAP services have failed to catch on, SMS has grown exponentially with up to 20 billion SMS messages in 2001. The early adopters will be mobile professionals and modern youth, who will require services and devices tailored to their needs.
4. Regulatory changes loom, particularly with the accession of China to the WTO. While foreigners will be unlikely to set up MVNOs, WTO will allow greater participation of foreigners in basic and value added services, although geographic limitations will exist through 2004 and Chinese players will be required to own at least 50% of telecom service ventures (51% for basic services). Regulatory risks remain, with no means to appeal regulator decisions, unclear interpretation of regulation including WTO commitments, and the government’s track record of intransparent and unpredictable decision making. (See separate regulatory PD for details)
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