中國銀行業深度報告(英文版)(pdf 35頁)

中國銀行業深度報告內容提要：
Continued cash burn at developers poses n-t NPL/macro risks Real estate loan credit quality has held up so far despite weakening prices and transaction volumes, partly due to the high profit margins on property projects that attracted continued financing flow in 1H08. However, we believe the continuing decline in transaction volumes, weakening buyer ntiment, inventory build-up and falling gross margins will lead to a cash squeeze for some developers, particularly in 4Q08 and 1H09; we see this as an emerging real estate NPL risk for China banks in 4Q08/2009.
Moreover, we see the scaling back of real estate investment, which is critical for velopers to survive, posing risks to macro growth (20pp yoy slowdown in property investment growth may reduce GDP growth rates by ~1 pp).
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