TCL分析報告英文版(pdf 6頁)

Shipments Collapse
Quick Comment: TCL Communications (2868.HK, not rated) has announced that its
October shipment fell 28.3% MoM, due largely to TCL Mobile. TCL Mobile’s October
shipment deteriorated after improving in September.
TCL’s total monthly shipment was 366,264 in October, down 47.5% YoY and
47.3% MoM. The shipment is by far the lowest since February 2002. It also lags the
first nine-month 2004 average shipment by 46.9%. At its third-quarter announcement,
the company expected the fourth-quarter shipment to pick up following an inventory
adjustment. However, recent updates from the company show that management now
expects the inventory adjustment period to be longer than it assumed previously.
According to TCL, its channel inventory is still 20% above normal, in line with that
of the overall Chinese handset market. In addition, TCL says it has recently launched
distribution reforms in an attempt to flatten the distribution structure and increase
retailers’ direct involvement, which may have caused some disruption in sales initially.
The company expects the distribution channel reform to yield results in three to six
months’ time. The company expects its 4Q04 shipment to remain at around the 3Q04
level or lower, depending on recovery in the Chinese handset market.
The TCL-Alcatel JV saw a shipment decline, but expects an improvement in 4Q04.
The TCL-Alcatel JV, TAMP, started operation in September this year. The JV reported
that its October shipment also dropped 5.1% to 542,839 units. However, management is
confident that the 4Q04 shipment will exceed 3Q04’s level, given the seasonally strong
November sales due to Christmas orders and less reliance on the China handset market
currently. The company expects the JV’s November shipment to grow at high-doubledigit
rates.
Our view on China’s Technology sector is In-Line.
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