某某戰略分析報告英文版(ppt 67頁)

Presentation to the Automotive News World Congress
Disclosures
Disclosures
Disclosures
Overview
Global Light Vehicle Sales: Slow Growth
Global Sales Forecasts: 2003 - 2004
U.S. Sales
Japanese SAAR
Western European SAAR
Global Excess Capacity at 25%-30%
or 20mm units
CapEx / D&A FY2003E:
OEMs Spending for Growth
Zero Sum Game
Modest Demand Growth
Light Vehicle Sales Trend Line Demand
Light Vehicle Sales Cycle: Trough to Trough
Weighted Median Age of a Vehicle vs. Sales
Off Lease Vehicles Begin to Decline
Average Maturity of Vehicle Loans (months)
Taking Longer to Establish Consumer Equity
Economic Conditions
Affordability Near 25 Year Best
Intense Competition
NA Capacity Additions, Despite Flat Sls Outlook
Excess Capacity & More Is On The Way
Revenue Pressures Worst Since 1970’s
Y/Y Change in Monthly New Car CPI
Price Reductions Pressure Manufacturers
Big Three Market Share Continues to Slide
Market Share Winners / Losers – FY03
Big Three Share of Sales by Segment:
FY-03 vs. FY-02
US Dollar per Euro: Jan 03 - Present
Japanese Yen vs. U.S. Dollar
Yen to US Dollar Price Sensitivity: YTD 03
Weaker Dollar Could Help a Little
Global Operating Margins FY02
Higher Rates Could be a Negative
Auto Finance Terms: Fall 2001 vs. Now
GMAC / FMCC Borrowing Costs
Big 3 Opportunity:
Actual Quality is Better than Perceived Quality
The Big Three: Positives & Negatives
Big Three Relative Stock Performance: 2003
General Motors
GM Market Share
U.S. Healthcare & Pension Cost/Unit FY03
GM Pension Funded Status: 2003 Update
GM Has Built Inventory in 2003
Financial Service Earnings Unlikely to Match 2003
GM New / Replacement / Redesigned Products
Ford Motor Company
F Market Share
F vs. GM Cash Flow
F Auto Pre-Tax Profit, 1999-2004E
F Geographic Pre-tax Profit: 3Q03 vs. 3Q02
F New / Replacement / Redesigned Products
F New Product Monitor
GM/Ford Outlook; What They Say
DaimlerChrysler
DCX Market Share
DCX Car & Lt. Truck Sales As A % of Parent
Chrysler & DCX Operating Margins
DCX New / Replacement / Redesigned Products
Implications
Suppliers’ Relative Stock Performance: 2003
Dealers’ Relative Stock Performance: 2003
Expectations: Year Ago vs. Today
Stephen.Girsky@MorganStanley.com

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