決策分析培訓課件(PPT 74頁)

什麼是決策
決策的主要特征
決策的過程
決策的要素
決策的分類
Some Examples
什麼是決策分析
主要內容
概率論基礎
The Goferbroke Company Problem
Prospective Profits
Prior Probabilities
Payoff Table (Profit in $Thousands)
The Maximax Criterion
The Maximin Criterion
The Maximum Likelihood Criterion
Bayes’ Decision Rule
決策準則小結
Decision Trees
Decision Tree for Goferbroke
Using TreePlan
Using New Information to Update the Probabilities
Seismic Survey for Goferbroke
Calculating Joint Probabilities
Probabilities of Each Finding
Calculating the Posterior Probabilities
Probability Tree Diagram
Posterior Probabilities (後驗概率)
Template for Posterior Probabilities
Decision Tree for the Full Goferbroke Co. Problem
Decision Tree with Probabilities and Payoffs
決策分析步驟
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